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Pew Poll: Partisan Interest, Reactions to IRS and AP Controversies Tuesday, May 21, 2013So far, public interest in a trio of controversies connected to the Obama administration has been limited. Roughly a quarter (26%) of Americans say they are very closely following reports that the IRS targeted conservative groups. About the same number (25%) are tracking the Benghazi investigation very closely, and even fewer (16%) are very closely following news about the Justice Department subpoenaing phone records of AP journalists. The new survey by the Pew Research Center finds that 37% of Republicans are paying very close attention to the IRS story, compared with 21% of Democrats and 25% of independents. And the Benghazi investigation continues to draw much greater interest from Republicans (34% very closely) than Democrats (18%). A historical review of previous controversies involving White House or cabinet officials finds that these levels of public interest – and the partisan divide in attentiveness – are not necessarily new. Previous scandals – such as the Lewis “Scooter” Libby case during George W. Bush’s administration or the “Pardon-gate” scandal at the end of Bill Clinton’s second term – received similar levels of public attention, and were generally more interesting to those in the opposition party. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted May 16-19, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,002 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Reason-Rupe May 2013 National Survey Tuesday, May 21, 2013President Barack Obama has vowed to keep pushing for new gun control measures and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the failed gun vote in the Senate was “just the beginning.” However, the latest Reason-Rupe national poll finds just 33 percent of Americans feel the “Senate should debate and vote on gun control legislation again,” while 62 percent want the Senate to “move on to other issues.” Earlier this month the world’s first fully 3D-printed gun was successfully fired and Reason-Rupe finds Americans are torn on 3D technology. A substantial 62 percent of Americans say people should be allowed to use 3D printers in their homes. Among those who say Americans should be allowed to have 3-D printers in their home, a majority (53 percent) say Americans should not be allowed to print their own gun parts, 44 percent say they should. When asked about the manhunt for the Boston Marathon bombers, 31 percent of Americans say it makes them more likely to want a gun in their homes, 9 percent are less likely to want a gun and 54 percent say their views weren’t impacted by the events. Almost half, 49 percent, of Americans fear the Boston bombings will cause the government to “overreact and enact policies that do more harm than good. ” Conversely, 42 percent trust the government to develop policies that help “avoid similar acts of terror.” The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted May 9-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 503 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Benghazi Investigation Does Not Reignite Broad Public Interest Wednesday, May 15, 2013The public paid limited attention to last week’s congressional hearings on Benghazi. Fewer than half (44%) of Americans say they are following the hearings very or fairly closely, virtually unchanged from late January when Hillary Clinton testified. Last October, 61% said they were following the early stages of the investigation at least fairly closely. The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted May 9-12 among 1,000 adults, finds that Americans are deeply split over how both the administration and congressional Republicans are handling the situation. Four-in-ten (40%) say the Obama administration has generally been dishonest when it comes to providing information about the Benghazi attack, but 37% say they have been generally honest. And when it comes to the GOP-led investigation, 36% say Republicans have gone too far in the hearings, while 34% say they have handled them appropriately. Not surprisingly, these reactions divide cleanly along partisan lines. Among Republicans, 70% say the Obama administration has been dishonest and 65% say the hearings have been handled appropriately. Among Democrats, 60% say the hearings have gone too far, and 62% say the administration has been honest. The judgment of independents leans against the administration at this point: By a 48% to 30% margin independents say the administration has been generally dishonest. But independents are split when it comes to Republican handling of the hearings. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted May 9-12, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: After Boston, Little Change in Views of Islam and Violence Monday, May 06, 2013The public’s views of whether Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence have changed little in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombings. Currently, 42% say Islam is more likely than other religions to encourage violence among its believers, while 46% say Islam does not encourage violence more than other religions. These are similar to opinions about Islam and violence for most of the past decade. But in March 2002, six months after the 9/11 attacks, just 25% said Islam was more likely to encourage violence while 51% disagreed. The new national survey finds sizable demographic and religious differences in attitudes toward Islam and violence. And the partisan gap is as large as ever: 62% of Republicans say that Islam encourages violence more than other religions, compared with 39% of independents and just 29% of Democrats. The survey also finds that Muslim Americans are seen as facing more discrimination than some other groups in society, including gays and lesbians, Hispanic Americans, African Americans and women. Overall, 45% say that Muslim Americans face a lot of discrimination, and 28% say they are subject to some discrimination. Only about one-in-five say that Muslim Americans face only a little (13%) or no discrimination (6%). About four-in-ten (39%) say that gays and lesbians face a lot of discrimination. Smaller percentages say that Hispanic Americans (25%), African Americans (22%) and women (15%) face a lot of discrimination. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted May 1-5, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,504 adults age 18 or older, including 753 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Division, Uncertainty over New Immigration Bill Wednesday, May 01, 2013As Congress debates a bill to overhaul the nation’s immigration policy, much of the public has yet to form an opinion about the legislation. About as many say they favor (33%) as oppose (28%) the immigration bill before Congress, but fully 38% say they don’t know what they think of the legislation. At this early stage of debate, the public does not think the bill would have a major impact on the nation’s economy or security. About half say either that the immigration bill would not make much of a difference for the economy (35%) or that they don’t know how the bill would affect the economy (17%). An even greater percentage says the bill would have no impact on the country’s safety from terrorism (57%) or that they don’t know how the country’s security would be affected (16%). The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted April 25-28 among 1,003 adults, finds that most do not think the Boston Marathon bombings should be an important factor in the debate over immigration legislation. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) say the Boston attack and the immigration debate are mostly separate issues, while 36% say the attack should be an important factor in the debate. Overall, the debate over immigration policy has drawn little public attention. Just 19% say they are following the story very closely. And most Americans are unaware of some of the legislation’s visible aspects. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted April 25-28, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 503 cell phone interviews.
Kaiser April 2013 Tracking Poll Tuesday, April 30, 2013With open enrollment in new health coverage options created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) set to begin in October, much of the public remains confused about the status of the law, according to the April Kaiser Health Tracking Poll, which provides a rough baseline of public awareness of the ACA before more intensive consumer information and consumer assistance efforts begin. Kaiser will track public awareness, including awareness among the uninsured, as implementation unfolds. Among the key findings of the new poll: Four in ten Americans (42%) are unaware that the ACA is still the law of the land, including 12 percent who believe the law has been repealed by Congress, 7 percent who believe it has been overturned by the Supreme Court and 23 percent who say they don’t know enough to say what the status of the law is. About half the public (49%) says they do not have enough information about the health reform law to understand how it will impact their own family. The share of the public that says they lack enough information to understand how the ACA will affect their family is higher among the two groups the law is likely to benefit most – the uninsured (58% of whom say they lack enough information) and low-income households (56%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted April 15-20, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,203 adults age 18 or older, including 602 cell phone interviews.
73% Don’t Know How Many Rewards Miles/Points They Have Tuesday, April 23, 2013According to a survey conducted on behalf of ThePointsGuy.com, a travel news and advice website, 73% of Americans who have frequent flyer miles or credit card rewards points don’t know how many they have. Younger people are the least likely to keep track of their miles and points: 80% of 18-29 year-olds who have points don’t know how many they have. Other findings include: 67% of Americans collect rewards miles/points, 41% of Americans understand how frequent flyer programs work, and 27% of Americans who have frequent flyer miles admit that they have let some or all of their miles expire at some point .The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 28 - March 3, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Public support for gun control ebbs Tuesday, April 23, 2013Four months after the shooting rampage at Sandy Hook Elementary School, a USA TODAY Poll finds support for a new gun-control law ebbing as prospects for passage on Capitol Hill seem to fade. Americans are more narrowly divided on the issue than in recent months, and backing for a bill has slipped below 50%, the poll finds. By 49%-45%, those surveyed favor Congress passing a new gun-control law. In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll in early April, 55% had backed a stricter gun law, which was down from 61% in February. Those who support a bill want advocates in Congress to hang tough and not compromise -- an attitude that also could complicate passing legislation. Sixty-one percent say members of Congress "should only agree to a stronger version of the bill, even if it might not pass." Just 30% say they should "accept a weaker law" they know can win approval. "So much of the support for gun control is emotional, following the Newtown tragedy," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report. The December shooting at the Connecticut school left 20 children and six adults dead. "The longer you get away from there, people start thinking of other issues. They start thinking about terrorism or jobs or immigration, and not surprisingly, then some of the momentum behind gun control starts to fade." The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted April 18-21, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,002 adults age 18 or older, including 501 cell phone interviews.
Pew Quiz: Public's Knowledge of Science and Technology Monday, April 22, 2013The public’s knowledge of science and technology varies widely across a range of questions on current topics and basic scientific concepts, according to a new quiz by the Pew Research Center and Smithsonian magazine. About eight-in-ten Americans (83%) identify ultraviolet as the type of radiation that sunscreen protects against. Nearly as many (77%) know that the main concern about the overuse of antibiotics is that it can lead to antibiotic-resistant bacteria. However, only about half (51%) of the public knows that “fracking” is a process that extracts natural gas, not coal, diamonds or silicon from the earth. Similarly, knowledge of basic scientific concepts differs greatly across questions. While most Americans (78%) know that the basic function of red blood cells is to carry oxygen to all parts of the body, just 20% could identify nitrogen as the gas that makes up most of the atmosphere. The survey was conducted with Smithsonian magazine for an edition focusing on STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education. The public underestimates how well American high school students perform on standardized science tests compared with students in other developed nations. A plurality (44%) believes that 15-year-olds in other developed nations outrank U.S. students in knowledge of science; according to an international student assessment, U.S. 15-year-olds are in the middle ranks of developed nations in science knowledge. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,006 adults age 18 or older, including 505 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: A Third of Americans Say They Like Doing Their Income Taxes Thursday, April 11, 2013As April 15 approaches, a majority of Americans (56%) have a negative reaction to doing their income taxes, with 26% saying they hate doing them. However, about a third (34%) say they either like (29%) or love (5%) doing their taxes. The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted April 4-7 among 1,003 adults, finds that the expectation of getting a refund is cited most often for why people like doing their taxes, but it is not the only factor. When asked why they like doing their income taxes, 29% say that they are getting a refund, while 17% say they just don’t mind it or they are good at it; 13% say doing their taxes gives them a sense of control, while the same percentage cites a feeling of obligation – that it is their duty to pay their fair share. Among those who dislike or hate doing their taxes, most cite the hassles of the process or the amount of time it takes: 31% say it is complicated, requires too much paperwork or they are afraid of making mistakes, while 24% say it is inconvenient and time-consuming. A much smaller share (12%) says they dislike doing their taxes because of how the government uses tax money. Just 5% of those who dislike or hate doing their income taxes say it is because they pay too much in taxes. Overall, people with lower incomes are more likely to have a positive of view of doing their taxes than those with higher incomes. About four-in-ten (41%) of those with family incomes of less than $30,000 a year say they like or love doing their income taxes compared with 30% of those with incomes of $75,000 or more. Blacks are far more likely than whites to say they like doing their taxes (52% vs. 28%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 4-7, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 503 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Public Divided over North Korea's Intentions, Capability Tuesday, April 09, 2013A majority of Americans say that the United States should take North Korea’s nuclear threats very seriously. At the same time, the public is divided over whether North Korea’s leadership is willing and capable of following through on its threats against the United States. The national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that 56% say the government should take North Korea’s threats to use nuclear missiles against the U.S. very seriously. Another 27% say the government should take North Korea’s threats somewhat seriously. About half of Americans (47%) think that North Korea’s leadership is really willing to follow through on its threats against the United States; 41% think North Korea is not really willing to follow through. Opinion also is divided about North Korea’s ability to make good on its threats: 47% say it is capable of launching a nuclear missile that could reach the U.S. while 43% say it is not capable. About a third of the public (36%) says they are paying very close attention to news about North Korea’s military threats and plans to restart its nuclear reactor, making this the most closely followed foreign news story of the year. Those who are following news about North Korea’s threats very closely are far more likely than those following it less closely to say that the government should take the threats very seriously (73% vs. 46%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted April 4-7, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
'Big gap to close' in public awareness of health law Friday, April 05, 2013Most consumers would flunk a test today on the federal Affordable Care Act, a new survey indicates, even though doing the wrong things could cost them bundles of money, add to their tax bills and affect the health care they and their families receive. But there's still enough time to learn how the law can help or hurt people so that they'll get a passing grade as important provisions of the law take effect later this year. “We have a big gap to close,” said Laura Adams, senior insurance analyst for InsuranceQuotes.com. Among findings made public Thursday, of those surveyed: 90 percent didn't know that the new health care marketplaces, also known as insurance exchanges, will open Oct. 1, one of the most important features of the new law. This is where individuals will compare and buy health insurance policies. Tens of millions of previously uninsured Americans are expected to gain access to health insurance. 49 percent knew that health plans will have to limit the amount that patients must pay for care each year, and 46 percent knew that plans won't limit yearly total benefits per person. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,006 adults age 18 or older, including 501 cell phone interviews.
Americans' Financial Security Surges, Most Consumers Unfazed by Higher Payroll Tax Rate Monday, March 25, 2013Bankrate's March Financial Security Index reading of 101.5 is the highest since the monthly polls began in December 2010. The 4.7-point jump from February's 96.8 is the second-biggest monthly gain in the Index's history (after a five-point gain from April 2011 to May 2011). This is only the third time in the past 28 months that consumers are feeling better about their financial security versus 12 months prior. Bankrate found that more than half of working Americans either haven't noticed (48%) or have been unaffected by (7%) the January 1 expiration of the payroll tax cut. Thirty percent of working Americans have cut their spending as a result. Eight percent are putting less money into savings and 3% have scaled back retirement contributions. "What is shocking is that the lowest-income households were the least likely to have cut back on spending and the most likely not to have noticed the change in the payroll tax," said Greg McBride , CFA, Bankrate.com's senior financial analyst. "These results contradict the widely held assumption that lower-income households would feel the biggest squeeze from the payroll tax cut expiring." Those most likely to have cut spending were households with income between $50,000 and $75,000 per year. The same surprising results were evident when evaluating on the basis of educational attainment: households headed by college graduates were the most likely to have cut spending, whereas households headed by those with less than a college degree were the most likely not to have noticed the higher payroll tax rate. Four of the Financial Security Index's five components (job security, debt, net worth and overall financial situation) indicate that Americans are better off now than one year ago; savings is the only laggard. All five components improved over the past month The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,006 adults age 18 or older, including 505 cell phone interviews.
Kaiser March 2013 Tracking Poll Wednesday, March 20, 2013As the Affordable Care Act (ACA) turns three this month, the law remains more of a political symbol than a reality for most Americans, including those the ACA is designed to benefit the most, the latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll shows. Less than a year before the law takes full effect, 57 percent of Americans say they still do not have enough information to understand how it will affect them. The share rises to two-thirds among some of the key groups the law was designed to help: the uninsured (67%) and those with incomes below $40,000 (68%). The poll also finds that Americans’ awareness of key elements of the law has declined somewhat since passage when media attention was at its height. For example in April 2010, 64 percent of the public recognized that the law would prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing medical conditions. That number has fallen to 53 percent today. Similarly, in April 2010, 75 percent were aware of the law’s tax subsidies to help lower and moderate income Americans purchase coverage; today that figure is 62 percent. Awareness and enrollment efforts are now beginning to ramp up across the country, and the Foundation will continue to gauge awareness of the law among key groups in our tracking polls. The survey finds that the public is not tuned into decisions states are making today about whether to expand their Medicaid program under the law and how to establish the insurance exchange marketplaces. Just 7 percent of the public say they have heard “a lot” (and 15% have heard “some”) about their own state’s decision to set up an exchange or leave the task to the federal government. And 78 percent say they have not heard enough to say whether their governor has made a decision about whether to expand Medicaid under the ACA. This is true in states where the governor has announced that they will expand Medicaid (80% say they haven’t heard enough to say) as well as in states whose governor has said they will not move forward with the expansion (74%). The poll also found that more Americans say they favor expanding Medicaid in their state (52%) than say they oppose it (41%), and a large majority has a favorable view of the law’s health insurance exchanges (80%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,204 adults age 18 or older, including 6002 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: A Decade Later, Iraq War Divides the Public Tuesday, March 19, 2013A decade after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the public offers a divided judgment of the war: 46% say the U.S. has mostly succeeded in achieving its goals in Iraq, about as many (43%) say it has mostly failed. The public also is split over the original decision to use military force in Iraq. While 44% say it was the wrong decision to use force in Iraq, 41% say it was the right decision. The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted March 14-17 among 924 adults, finds that the percentages saying the war was a success and the decision to go to war was the right one have declined since November 2011, as U.S. forces were being withdrawn from Iraq. At that time, 56% said the U.S. had mostly succeeded in Iraq, 10 points higher than today. Nearly half (48%) said the war was the right decision — among the highest percentages since the second year of the war. The decline in the percentage saying the war was the right decision has come largely among Republicans. Currently, 58% of Republicans say the war was the right decision, down 14 points since November 2011 and the lowest percentage since the war began in 2003. Opinions among Democrats and independents are little changed since 2011. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 14-17, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 924 adults age 18 or older, including 412 cell phone interviews.
Venn Diagrams, Probability 101 and Sampling Weights Computed for Dual Frame Telephone RDD Designs by Trent D. Buskirk, PH.D and Jonathan Best
Thursday, March 14, 2013The continued rise in cell phone penetration creates a real potential for undercoverage bias in many RDD sample surveys. To respond to such threats researchers have begun implementing dual frame RDD sampling strategies. In this paper we present a method for constructing first-stage sampling weights derived under an overlapping, dual frame design (e.g. cell and landline RDD numbers) based on probability 101 fundamentals. Because these two frames potentially overlap at the user level, selection probabilities must be adjusted for multiplicity of selection. Our method resembles weighting strategies consistent with a "single frame" approach and does not require estimation of a compositing factor traditionally used in the "dual frame" approach. Estimators employing resulting sampling weights are effectively Horvitz-Thompson estimators that in some cases can be approximated using a slightly simplified Hansen-Hurwitz type estimator. We use our proposed method to construct base sampling weights for both a national and state level dual frame RDD samples of landline and cell phone numbers. Using national and state-level benchmark data we also present bias estimates for a battery of health related outcomes.
Pew Poll: Views of Economic News Remain Mixed Tuesday, March 12, 2013As federal spending cuts take effect and the stock market has reached record highs, the public continues to say they are hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy. Overall, 58% say they have been hearing mixed economic news; a third (33%) have been hearing mostly bad news about the economy, while just 7% say they have been hearing mostly good news. Views of economic news are little changed in recent months. While the overall economic news picture remains mixed, a national survey by the Pew Research Center finds modest improvement in views of news about the financial markets. About a quarter (23%) say they are hearing mostly good news about markets, up from 18% in February. Nonetheless, more (29%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about financial markets; 43% report hearing mixed news. Meanwhile, impressions of news about gas prices have turned sharply negative. Nearly three-quarters (74%) say they have been hearing mostly bad news about gas prices, just 4% have been hearing mostly good news and 20% have heard mixed news. About a month ago, 53% said they had been hearing mostly bad news about gas prices. Negative impressions of news about gas prices have risen across nearly all demographic groups. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted March 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,006 adults age 18 or older, including 505 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: U.S. Catholics See Sex Abuse as the Church’s Most Important Problem, Charity as Its Most Important Contribution Friday, March 08, 2013As the Roman Catholic Church prepares for a conclave to elect a new pope, Catholics in the United States tend to view the scandal over sex abuse by clergy as the most important problem facing their church today. Asked to say in their own words what they think is the Catholic Church’s most important problem, 34% of U.S. Catholics mention sex abuse, pedophilia or some other reference to the scandal. No other problem garners more than 10% of responses. When asked about the main way the church helps society today, U.S. Catholics most commonly refer to charitable efforts to aid the poor, feed the hungry and heal the sick. In a nationwide Pew Research Center survey nearly one-in-ten U.S. Catholics (9%) say that the church faces a lack of credibility or trust. And 7% cite low attendance at Mass, a loss of followers or a general loss of faith in society as the most important problem facing the church at this time. An equal number (7%) say the church’s most important problem is that it is outdated or out of touch and needs to become more modern or adapt to changes in society. Just one-in-twenty U.S. Catholics (5%) mention the temporary lack of a pope or the need to choose a new pope as the church’s most important problem today. About one-in-six (17%) decline to offer an opinion or say they do not know what is the most important problem facing the church. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 28 to March 3, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 184 Catholics.
Reason-Rupe February/March 2013 National Survey Wednesday, March 06, 2013A majority of Americans, 57 percent, believe it is unconstitutional for the president of the United States to order the killing of American citizens who are suspected of being terrorists, a new Reason-Rupe poll finds. Just 31 percent think it is constitutional for the president to order the killing of American citizens suspected of being terrorists. Even more, 59 percent, say they are concerned “the government may abuse its power” when it comes to using drone strikes on American citizens who are suspected of being terrorists. As the use of drones by domestic law enforcement agencies grows, 60 percent of Americans are now concerned that their local police departments might invade their privacy with the use of drones. The public is split, 47-47, on whether or not they “should have the right to destroy” a drone that is taking pictures or videos of their home. The Reason-Rupe poll conducted live interviews with 1,002 adults on mobile (502) and landline (500) phones from February 21-25, 2013. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent. Princeton Survey Research Associates International executed the nationwide survey. Nearly six in ten Americans say the country is headed in the wrong direction. But 51 percent approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing, 43 percent disapprove. The president’s handling of the economy gets lower marks: 47 percent approve, 49 percent disapprove. But nothing in the Reason-Rupe poll gets lower marks than Congress: 77 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Congress is doing, just 14 percent approve. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 21-25, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,002 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Kaiser February 2013 Tracking Poll Wednesday, February 27, 2013With gun control re-emerging as a major political issue following the tragic mass shootings at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn., the latest Kaiser Health Tracking Survey measures the public’s personal experiences with, and worries about, gun violence. It finds that one in five Americans say they personally know a victim of gun violence. And considerably more — four in ten Americans (42%) — say they are at least somewhat worried about being the victim of gun violence. Among the twenty percent who know a victim, a majority say that person was a good friend, family member or even themself. Blacks stand out as the group most likely to know someone who suffered from gun violence (42%), followed by younger Americans (28% of those aged 18 to 29). When it comes to worrying about becoming a victim of gun violence, the poll finds members of racial or ethnic minority groups are particularly likely to report concern, with majorities of Hispanics (75%) and blacks (62%) saying they are worried, compared to 30 percent of whites. The poll also probed Americans’ experiences with and opinions about mental illness and mental health care following Newtown. It finds that three-quarters of Americans believe that individuals with severe mental health issues experience “a lot” or “some” discrimination, higher than the share who say the same about minorities, women and people with physical disabilities. Only immigrants were more likely to be perceived as experiencing discrimination, with 79 percent of the public saying immigrants faced “a lot” or “some” discrimination. The survey also finds that many people hold potentially stigmatizing attitudes about the mentally ill. Two-thirds of parents say they would not feel comfortable having “a person with a serious mental illness” work in their child’s school. Nearly half the public (47%) would feel at least somewhat uncomfortable living next door to such a person, and 41 percent would feel uncomfortable working alongside them. In terms of access to care, 8 percent of Americans say someone in their household has had problems getting needed mental health care, a proportion that rises to two in ten (20%) among those currently without health insurance. The most common barrier was cost, followed by insurance coverage issues and confusion over where to go. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 14-19, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,209 adults age 18 or older, including 607 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Most Say Spending Cuts Would Have Major Impact on Economy, Military Tuesday, February 26, 2013While many Americans may be resigned to seeing automatic spending cuts in the budget sequester go into effect, the public is concerned about the potential impact of the reductions. A new national survey by the Pew Research Center and The Washington Post, conducted Feb. 21-24 among 1,000 adults, finds that most say the budget sequester would have a major effect on the economy as well as on the U.S. military. And by more than three-to-one (62%-18%), the public sees the impact on the economy as mostly negative rather than mostly positive. But signs of public fatigue after a series of fiscal crises remain apparent. Just days before automatic federal spending cuts are set to take place, only a quarter are following the issue very closely. By comparison, four-in-ten were closely tracking the fiscal cliff debate in December a full month before the deadline. And a Pew Research Center/USA TODAY survey just last week found 40% willing to see the sequester’s cuts take hold rather than having them delayed. Yet the new survey finds six-in-ten-ten (60%) saying automatic federal spending cuts would have a major effect on the U.S. economy and nearly as many (55%) say the same for the U.S. military. Fewer (45%) say the cuts would have a major impact on the federal budget deficit, while just (30%) think their own personal finances would be affected in a major way. And while earlier polls have found Republicans and Democrats offering different solutions to the nation’s budget problems, there is substantial partisan agreement that the sequester will do more economic harm than good. Roughly six-in-ten Republicans, Democrats and independents alike say the sequester will have a major effect on the nation’s economy, and by overwhelming margins all agree that the effect will be negative, not positive. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 21-24, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
One-fourth of adult drivers have gotten traffic tickets in past 5 years Monday, February 25, 2013It’s a familiar scenario for so many drivers: Just after getting a speeding ticket, you hang your head and begin worrying about your car insurance premiums going through the roof. But a new survey suggests that ticketed drivers may be worrying in vain. InsuranceQuotes.com asked American drivers over age 18 whether they’d received a traffic ticket in the past five years for infractions like speeding, running a red light or passing illegally. Of those polled, 23 percent had gotten traffic tickets. Among ticket recipients, only 31 percent said they’re paying more for car insurance as a result. This, experts say, is not entirely surprising. Car insurance premiums don’t always climb after someone gets slapped with a moving violation. When a car insurance company prepares a new policy, one of the things it checks is a driver’s motor vehicle report (MVR). This report includes a list of all traffic tickets the driver has received in the past two or three years as well as the number of points on that person’s driving record. It’s one of the primary tools used to determine premiums for new customers. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: If No Deal is Struck, Four-in-Ten Say Let the Sequester Happen Thursday, February 21, 2013After a series of fiscal crises over the past few years, the public is not expressing a particular sense of urgency over the pending March 1 sequester deadline. With little more than a week to go, barely a quarter have heard a lot about the scheduled cuts, while about as many have heard nothing at all. And if the president and Congress cannot reach a deficit reduction agreement before the deadline, 40% of Americans say it would be better to let the automatic spending cuts go into effect, while 49% say it would be better to delay the cuts. Both Republicans and independents are divided evenly over which approach is better, and even among Democrats, roughly a third favor letting the sequester take effect over any delays. The new survey, conducted Feb. 13-18, 2013 with 1,504 adults nationwide, is the first in a collaboration between the Pew Research Center and USA TODAY. It finds that, as with previous conflicts over the debt ceiling and fiscal cliff, Obama holds the upper hand politically over congressional Republicans. If there is no deficit deal by March 1, 49% say congressional Republicans would be more to blame while just 31% would mostly blame President Obama. Moreover, 76% say that the president and Congress should focus on a combination of spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the budget deficit. Just 19% agree with the current Republican position that tax increases should be off the table. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,004 adults age 18 or older, including 504 cell phone interviews.The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 14-17, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Hagel Better Known, Viewed More Negatively Wednesday, February 20, 2013Unfavorable opinions of Chuck Hagel have increased over the past month as he has faced a bruising confirmation battle to become President Obama’s secretary of defense. A national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Feb. 14-17 among 1,003 adults, finds that 22% have a favorable opinion of Hagel while 28% have an unfavorable view; 50% express no opinion about the former Nebraska GOP senator. A month ago, shortly after his nomination, opinions about Hagel were divided: 18% had a favorable view, 17% an unfavorable opinion and nearly two-thirds (65%) had no opinion. Over this period, the percentage holding a very unfavorable opinion of Hagel has nearly doubled – from 7% to 13%. Currently, more than twice as many Republicans view Hagel unfavorably as favorably (36% vs. 15%); 48% have no opinion. In January, 15% viewed him favorably, 26% unfavorably, and 59% expressed no opinion. Views of Hagel are particularly negative among Republicans and Republican leaners who agree with the Tea Party: 48% view him unfavorably, including 26% very unfavorably, while just 15% have a favorable view. Among Democrats and independents, the balance of opinion about Hagel also has grown more negative. Currently, 31% of Democrats view Hagel favorably while 23% view him unfavorably; 46% still have no opinion. In January, two-thirds of Democrats expressed no opinion of Hagel; among those who had an opinion, favorable views outnumbered unfavorable opinions by two-to-one (23% to 10%). Independents’ views of Hagel also have turned more negative over the past month. The survey also finds that the public expresses mixed views of Marco Rubio, following his response to Obama’s State of the Union address. Overall, 26% view Rubio favorably, 29% unfavorably, and 46% cannot offer a rating. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 14-17, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Most Approve of Ending Saturday Mail Delivery Thursday, February 14, 2013A majority of Americans (54%) approve of the U.S. Postal Service’s recent decision to halt Saturday delivery of letters, while 32% disapprove of the decision. The planned end of Saturday mail delivery is a rare government decision that garners bipartisan support – 58% of independents approve of the action, as do 57% of Republicans and 51% of Democrats. Most Americans say they have heard or read at least a little about the Postal Service’s announcement that they plan to stop Saturday delivery of letters to address budget shortfalls. Majorities of those who have heard a lot (67%) or a little (56%) about the action approve of it. But those who have heard nothing at all about the decision – 16% of the public – disapprove of stopping Saturday mail delivery by more than two-to-one (60% disapprove vs. 25% approve). The national survey by the Pew Research Center, conducted Feb. 7-10 among 1,004 adults, finds that blacks are the only major demographic group in which a majority (55%) opposes the Postal Service decision to halt Saturday delivery. Whites approve of the decision by more than two-to-one (61% to 26%). Fewer blacks than whites have heard about the Postal Service’s announcement that it is stopping Saturday deliveries because of budget problems. Nearly three-in-ten blacks (29%) say they heard nothing at all about the announcement, compared with 12% of whites. People younger than 30 are far less aware of the Postal Service announcement than older people – 42% of those 18-to-29 heard nothing at all about it, compared with just 10% of those 30 and older. Those under 30 also are the only age group in which a majority does not support the decision (38% approve). Those who use the mail infrequently, or don’t use it at all, are more supportive of the decision to end Saturday delivery than are those who send or receive letters on a weekly basis. Among the third of Americans (34%) who seldom or never use the mail for personal letters, 61% approve of the decision to end Saturday delivery and just 21% disapprove. Opinion is more evenly divided among the 40% who send or receive personal letters weekly or more: 50% approve of the decision while 44% disapprove. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,004 adults age 18 or older, including 504 cell phone interviews.
What President Obama should (and shouldn’t) say in the State of the Union Wednesday, February 13, 2013If President Obama wants immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented workers, he may not want to mention it at all in tonight’s State of the Union speech, a new Washington Post poll suggests. Seven in 10 people in the survey said they would support a path to citizenship, including 60 percent of Republicans. But when the same question was asked of a separate sample of respondents, this time with Obama’s name attached to it, support dropped to 59 percent overall and just 39 percent among Republicans. On other hot-button issues like banning the sale of semi-automatic assault weapons or ending the war in Afghanistan, however, lending Obama’s name to the proposal made each viewed more favorably — and therefore if he were to put his political weight behind them it could actually increase their chances of passing. On doing something about climate change, there was no noticeable movement. On a path to citizenship, Republicans don’t mind the idea in theory but loathe it when attached to Obama. Independents are slightly less likely to support a path to citizenship if it is cast as Obama’s proposal, while Democrats favor it in basically the same numbers with or without the president’s name being mentioned. The reverse is also true. While six in 10 Democrats support an assault weapons ban, that number jumps to more than three in four when the proposal is cast as Obama’s. Independents move slightly more in favor of an assault weapon ban when Obama is tied to it, while Republicans don’t like the idea with or without Obama.The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 31 - February 10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,775 adults age 18 or older, including 892 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Continued Support for U.S. Drone Strikes Monday, February 11, 2013While U.S. drone strikes have faced new scrutiny in recent weeks, a majority of the public continues to support the program. Overall, 56% approve of the U.S. conducting missile strikes from pilotless aircraft to target extremists in countries such as Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia; just 26% say they disapprove. Opinion is largely unchanged from last July, when 55% approved of the program. Support for drone attacks crosses party lines: 68% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats say they approve of U.S. drone strikes. There also are stark gender differences in opinions about the use of drones: Men approve of drone strikes by more than three-to-one (68% to 21%). Among women, 44% approve, while 31% disapprove. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that while drone strikes draw continued support, there is widespread concern that the attacks endanger innocent civilians. Overall, 53% say they are very concerned about whether drone strikes put the lives of civilians in danger. Even among those who approve of the program, 42% say they are very concerned the attacks risk lives of innocent civilians. Other possible consequences from drone attacks spur less public concern: 32% are very concerned they could lead to retaliation from extremist groups, 31% are very concerned the attacks are being conducted legally and 26% worry they could damage America’s reputation around the world. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,004 adults age 18 or older, including 504 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Little Change in Views of Importance of State of the Union Monday, February 11, 2013A plurality of the public (43%) views Barack Obama’s upcoming State of the Union as about as important as past years’ addresses. About a third (32%) say Obama’s speech will be more important than those in past years, while 15% say it will be less important. Opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union are little changed from last year or 2011. Last year, 46% expected the address to be about as important as those of past years; 36% said it would be more important and 14% said it would be less important. These views also are in line with expectations for most of George W. Bush’s State of the Unions. The exceptions were 2002 and 2003, following the 9/11 attacks and before the Iraq war, when majorities viewed Bush’s State of the Union as more important. In 2008, when Bush gave his final State of the Union, just 19% viewed it as more important. As in past years, there are wide partisan differences in opinions about the importance of Obama’s State of the Union address. Far more Democrats (46%) than independents (28%) or Republicans (21%) say Obama’s speech this year will be important than those in prior years. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted February 7-10, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,004 adults age 18 or older, including 504 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Public Hearing Better News about Housing and Financial Markets Wednesday, February 06, 2013As Barack Obama begins his second term in office, the public is hearing a mix of good and bad news about the economy, as it has for much of the past four years. Views of news about real estate values and financial markets have improved and are as positive as they have been in the last four years. But these relative bright spots are counterbalanced by persistently negative views of news about gas prices and prices for food and consumer goods. For the first time, as many say they are hearing mostly good news (25%) as bad news (24%) about real estate values; the remainder (40%) says the news is mixed. In 2009, far more saw the news about real estate as bad than good and the balance worsened considerably in 2010 and 2011. The latest survey by the Pew Research Center finds that perceptions of news about financial markets have become more positive since the end of last year. Nonetheless, more say the news about the financial markets is mostly bad (28%) than mostly good (18%); 44% say the news is a mix of good and bad. The job situation also is viewed less negatively: 42% say the news about jobs is mostly bad, the lowest percentage in nearly a year and far lower than the 71% who viewed job news negatively in June 2009. By contrast, views of news about prices for food and consumer goods remain broadly negative and have shown no improvement over Obama’s first term. Half (50%) say they are hearing mostly bad news about consumer prices; just 7% say they are hearing mostly good news. In June 2009, shortly after Obama took office, impressions of news about prices were less negative (39% mostly bad news vs. 9% mostly good news). By a 53%-8% margin more say they are hearing mostly bad news about gas prices than mostly good news. The percentage hearing mostly bad news about gas prices has jumped 11 points since December and 22 points since July. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 31 - February 3, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
52 Percent of Americans Say Sandy Hook Is Being Exploited for Political Gain Thursday, January 31, 2013As gun rights and gun control are debated in the wake of the Sandy Hook school shooting, a majority of Americans say elected officials are “exploiting” the tragedy. The new Reason-Rupe poll finds 52 percent of Americans believe that elected officials are exploiting the tragedy for political gain, while 41 percent feel elected officials are acting responsibly. Democrats differ sharply from independents and Republicans on the issue. Seventy-one percent of Republicans and 60 percent of independents think the tragedy is being politicized, while just 32 percent of Democrats believe so. Reason-Rupe finds that over half, 51 percent, of Americans say people “should be allowed to own assault weapons,” while 44 percent say people “should be prohibited from owning assault weapons.” Once again there is a substantial political divide: 68 percent of Republicans and 57 percent of independents say assault weapons should be allowed. However, just 33 percent of Democrats agree. Democrats, who normally count on the youth vote, may be surprised to find that 70 percent of 18-24 year-olds and 58 percent of 25-34 year-olds say “assault weapons should be allowed.” Similarly, Republicans, who usually rely upon the senior vote, will find that 57 percent of 55-64 year-olds and 61 percent of people over the age of 65 say assault weapons should be prohibited. As Congress gets ready to debate new gun restrictions, just 27 percent of Americans say the federal assault weapons ban that expired in 2004 would’ve helped avoid the tragedy if it were still in place. Over two-thirds, 67 percent, say the ban would not have helped avoid the shooting. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 17-21, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Broad Support for Combat Roles for Women Tuesday, January 29, 2013The public broadly supports the military’s decision to lift restrictions on women in combat. Two-thirds (66%) support allowing women in the military to serve in ground units that engage in close combat, while just 26% are opposed. Opinion on this question is little changed from a Washington Post/ABC News survey two years ago. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post finds that the public is evenly divided over whether allowing women to take on combat roles represents a major change for the U.S. military: 47% say it is, while an equal percentage says this is just a minor change. The survey, conducted after Defense Secretary Leon Panetta ended the ban on women serving in ground combat units, finds that most Americans (58%) think that the policy shift will improve opportunities for women in the military. By contrast, fewer think the decision will have an impact on military effectiveness. Nearly half (49%) say allowing women to serve in combat roles will not make much difference to military effectiveness; among those who say it will have an impact, nearly twice as many say this will make military effectiveness better (29%) rather than worse (15%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 24-27, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,005 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Tracking for Health Monday, January 28, 2013Seven in ten (69%) U.S. adults track a health indicator for themselves or a loved one and many say this activity has changed their overall approach to health, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. This is the first national survey measuring health data tracking, which has been shown in clinical studies to be a tool for improving outcomes, particularly among people trying to lose weight or manage a chronic condition.Pew Poll: Deficit Reduction Rises on Public's Agenda for Obama's Second Term Friday, January 25, 2013When Barack Obama took office four years ago, reducing the budget deficit was a middle-tier item on the public’s agenda. Only about half of Americans (53%) viewed it as a top policy priority in January 2009, placing it ninth on a list of 20 policy goals. But as Obama begins his second term, only the economy and jobs are viewed as more important priorities for the coming year. Currently, 72% say that reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority, up 19 points from four years ago. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that Americans continue to view other domestic initiatives as important priorities as well, despite their focus on the deficit. Growing numbers give high priority to dealing with education, the problems of the poor, crime and the environment. Fully 70% say that improving the educational system should be a top priority, up from 61% in January 2009. And 57% rate dealing with the problems of the poor and needy as a top priority; four years ago, 50% viewed this as a top priority. The survey finds that 52% view protecting the environment as a top policy priority, up 11 points from January 2009. However, dealing with global warming remains at the bottom of the public’s agenda for 2013; just 28% see this as a top priority, little changed from recent years. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 9-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,503 adults age 18 or older, including 750 cell phone interviews.
Fewer Splurge Over the Holidays Tuesday, January 22, 2013Were you naughty or nice over the holidays? Nice -- that is, to your pocketbook. Most people say they landed squarely on the nice list, with 82 percent of Americans reporting that their holiday spending came in at or under expectations. On the naughty side, 16 percent of consumers say they spent more than expected, according to Bankrate's January 2013 Financial Security Index. The 2012 holiday season was consistent with the two previous years. In January 2011, 19 percent of Americans said they had overspent during the holidays, and a year later, 17 percent said they spent more than expected for the holidays. Saving or spending less than expected was also in line with previous years, with 28 percent coming in under budget this year, compared to last year's 24 percent and 27 percent in 2011. Though consumers' estimated budgets may have been in line with previous years, the forecast for the holiday sales season shows a slight dip from 2011, according to Chris Christopher, a senior principal economist and director of U.S. and global consumer markets with IHS Global Insight, a global market information and analytics company. "We suspect holiday sales should be in the neighborhood of approximately 3.9 percent higher than last year," Christopher says. "For the past two years, they were around 5.5 percent higher." The final official figures won't be known until later this month. There were myriad drains on spending enthusiasm in 2012, including the generally sluggish economy and consumer confidence going over the proverbial cliff at the end of the year. "Our analysis is that the run-up to Christmas was not very strong," Christopher says. In late October, Superstorm Sandy disrupted luxury shopping in New York City, and then "after the election, the 'fiscal cliff' became paramount to the American household, and then consumer confidence fell dramatically," he says. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 3-6, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Library Services in the Digital Age Tuesday, January 22, 2013The internet has already had a major impact on how people find and access information, and now the rising popularity of e-books is helping transform Americans’ reading habits. In this changing landscape, public libraries are trying to adjust their services to these new realities while still serving the needs of patrons who rely on more traditional resources. In a new survey of Americans’ attitudes and expectations for public libraries, the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project finds that many library patrons are eager to see libraries’ digital services expand, yet also feel that print books remain important in the digital age.Pew Poll: Obama in Strong Position at Start of Second Term Thursday, January 17, 2013As he prepares for his second inauguration, Barack Obama is in a stronger position with the public than he was over much of his first term. At 52%, his job approval rating is among the highest since the early months of his presidency. His personal favorability, currently 59%, has rebounded from a low of 50% in the fall campaign. And increasing percentages describe him as a strong leader, able to get things done and as someone who stands up for his beliefs. Obama’s political advantage is enhanced by the poor standing of his Republican counterparts. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Jan. 9-13 among 1,502 adults finds that both House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are viewed more unfavorably than favorably. The Republican Party’s image, which reached a recent high of 42% favorable following the GOP convention this past summer, has fallen once again to a low of just 33%. Much of this decline has come among Republicans themselves. Favorable opinions of the GOP among Republicans have fallen 20 points since September (from 89% to 69%) and are now as low as at any point during the past 20 years. While his personal image is strong, Obama’s current j0b rating is not high compared with other two-term presidents since World War II. Among presidents dating back to Harry S. Truman, only George W. Bush began his second term with a rating about as low as Obama’s (50% approval in January 2005). To a degree, this reflects the partisan polarization in opinions about both Obama and Bush; Obama’s current rating among Republicans (14% approve) is about the same as Bush’s among Democrats eight years ago (17%). Among recent two-term presidents, none has had a significantly better job approval mark at the end of his presidency than at the start of his second term. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 9-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,502 adults age 18 or older, including 750 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Roe v. Wade at 40: Most Oppose Overturning Abortion Decision Wednesday, January 16, 2013As the 40th anniversary of the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision approaches, the public remains opposed to completely overturning the historic ruling on abortion. More than six-in-ten (63%) say they would not like to see the court completely overturn the Roe v. Wade decision, which established a woman’s constitutional right to abortion at least in the first three months of pregnancy. Only about three-in-ten (29%) would like to see the ruling overturned. These opinions are little changed from surveys conducted 10 and 20 years ago. Decades after the Supreme Court rendered its decision, on Jan. 22, 1973, most Americans (62%) know that Roe v. Wade dealt with abortion rather than school desegregation or some other issue. But the rest either guess incorrectly (17%) or do not know what the case was about (20%). And there are substantial age differences in awareness: Among those ages 50 to 64, 74% know that Roe v. Wade dealt with abortion, the highest percentage of any age group. Among those younger than 30, just 44% know this. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center finds that abortion is viewed as a less important issue than in the past. Currently, 53% say abortion “is not that important compared to other issues,” up from 48% in 2009 and 32% in 2006. The percentage viewing abortion as a “critical issue facing the country” fell from 28% in 2006 to 15% in 2009 and now stands at 18%. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 9-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,502 adults age 18 or older, including 750 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: In Gun Control Debate, Several Options Draw Majority Support Tuesday, January 15, 2013While the issue of gun control remains divisive, there are clear areas of agreement when it comes to a number of gun policy proposals. Fully 85% of Americans favor making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks, with comparable support from Republicans, Democrats and independents. Similarly, 80% support laws to prevent mentally ill people from purchasing guns, with broad support across party lines. But this bipartisan consensus breaks down when it comes to other proposals. Two-thirds of Americans (67%) favor creating a federal database to track gun sales, but there is a wide partisan divide between Democrats (84%) and Republicans (49%). A smaller majority of the public (55%) favors a ban on assault-style weapons; Democrats (69%) also are far more likely than Republicans (44%) to support this. Similar partisan divides exist when it comes to banning high-capacity ammunition clips or the sale of ammunition online. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press also tested two specific school-safety proposals, with widely different results. By a two-to-one margin (64%-32%), most favor putting armed security guards and police in more schools. But when it comes to more teachers and school officials having guns, most are opposed (40% favor vs. 57% oppose). The latter option is particularly divisive across party lines: 56% of Republicans would like to see more teachers and school officials armed, compared with just 23% of Democrats. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 9-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,502 adults age 18 or older, including 750 cell phone interviews.
Poll Finds That Obama’s Base Overlaps With Gun-Control Coalition Tuesday, January 15, 2013As President Obama readies a new push for gun-control legislation, he will rely on the support of the same political coalition that thrust him into a second term last November: young people, minorities, and college-educated women. A slim majority of Americans, 51 percent, believe that controlling gun ownership is more important than protecting the right of Americans to own firearms, according to the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. But beneath that divided topline were far more telling cleavages. The survey showed that the gun-control debate in America has split along the same fault lines—by age group, ethnicity, gender, even region—that marked the 2012 presidential contest between Obama and Mitt Romney. As the gun-control debate shifts from the White House to Capitol Hill, with Vice President Joe Biden set to unveil his task-force proposals on Tuesday, the question is whether Obama can mold his winning electoral coalition into a successful legislative one. The challenge will be particularly acute in the GOP-controlled House, where most Republicans represent the kind of voters who are resistant to new gun restrictions. In the survey, those same younger Americans, between the ages of 18 and 29, who fueled Obama’s rise and reelection, were the most supportive (56 percent) among all age groups of the focus on stricter gun control. Similarly, minorities, another key part of the Obama coalition, were overwhelmingly in favor of prioritizing gun control over gun rights, the poll showed. A full 69 percent of nonwhites preferred focusing on gun control; in contrast, 52 percent of whites preferred to focus on protecting the right to own guns. Obama struggled mightily during 2012 among white men without a college degree; the push for gun control falters with that group, as well. A solid 62 percent of them said the focus should be on gun rights. The poll found that the gun-control movement has made inroads among one key swing constituency that Obama and Romney fought hard to win over: educated white women. Two-thirds of white women with a college degree said they preferred to focus on gun control; 30 percent favored focusing on gun rights. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 10-13, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,001 adults age 18 or older, including 500 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Obama Viewed as Fiscal Cliff Victor; Legislation Gets Lukewarm Reception Monday, January 07, 2013Barack Obama is viewed as the clear political winner in the fiscal cliff negotiations, but the legislation itself gets only a lukewarm reception from the public: As many disapprove as approve of the new tax legislation, and more say it will have a negative than positive impact on the federal budget deficit, the national economy and people like themselves. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that 57% say that Obama got more of what he wanted from the tax legislation while just 20% say Republican leaders got more of what they wanted. And while 48% approve of the way Obama handled the fiscal cliff negotiations only 19% approve of the way GOP leaders handled the negotiations. Republicans take a particularly sour view of the outcome: just 16% approve of the final legislation, and by a 74% to 11% margin they think Obama got more of what he wanted. Only 40% of Republicans approve of how their party’s leaders handled the negotiations; by comparison, fully 81% of Democrats approve of how Obama handled the negotiations. Relatively few Americans expect that the tax legislation that resulted from those talks will help people like themselves, the budget deficit, or the national economy. Just three-in-ten Americans say the tax measure will mostly help people like them; 52% say it will mostly hurt. And even when it comes to the budget deficit, 44% say the deal will mostly hurt, while 33% say it will mostly help. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted January 3-6, 2013 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 502 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: After Newtown, Modest Change in Opinion about Gun Control Thursday, December 20, 2012The public’s attitudes toward gun control have shown only modest change in the wake of last week’s deadly shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, Connecticut. Currently, 49% say it is more important to control gun ownership, while 42% say it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns. This marks the first time since Barack Obama took office that more Americans prioritize gun control than the right to own guns. Opinion was evenly divided in July, following a shooting at a Colorado movie theater. At that time, 47% said it was more important to control gun ownership, while 46% said it was more important to protect gun rights.However, support for gun control remains lower than before Obama took office. In April 2008, 58% said it was more important to control gun ownership; just 37% prioritized protecting gun rights. As in the past, there are wide partisan and demographic differences in opinions about gun control. Majorities of men, whites and Republicans say it is more important to protect gun rights. By contrast, most women, blacks, Democrats and those in the Northeast prioritize controlling gun ownership. In other regions, opinion is divided. There are deeply held opinions on both sides when it comes to the choice between controlling gun ownership and protecting gun rights: 42% strongly believe it is more important to control gun ownership, while 37% strongly feel it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds a higher percentage saying that gun ownership in this country does more to protect people from crime (48%) than to put their safety at risk (37%). However, about two-thirds (65%) think that allowing citizens to own assault weapons makes the country more dangerous. Just 21% say that permitting these types of weapons makes the country safer. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted December 16-19, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,219 adults age 18 or older, including 485 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Public Divided over What Newtown Signifies Monday, December 17, 2012
The shootings at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn. on Friday have drawn widespread public interest. A weekend survey finds that 57% of Americans say they followed news about the tragedy there very closely. That is higher than interest in the shootings at an Aurora, Colo. movie theater in July (49% very closely), though not as great as interest in the Columbine shootings in 1999 (68%). The survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Dec. 14-16 among 746 adults, finds the public is evenly divided over whether the Newtown shootings reflect broader problems in Americans society (47%) or are just the acts of troubled individuals (44%). By contrast, clear majorities said that both the Aurora shootings, as well as the shootings in Tucson, Ariz. in Jan. 2011, were just the isolated acts of troubled individuals; 67% said that after the Aurora shootings at a movie theater and 58% said that after the Tucson shootings, which killed six and left former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords seriously wounded. Opinions today are comparable to reactions to the shootings on the campus of Virginia Tech University in April 2007. Most parents are talking with their children about the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School, according to a separate survey of more than 750 adults with children at home, conducted Dec. 14-17, using Google Consumer Surveys. About half (53%) of all the parents who participated in the survey, including 71% of those with younger children, say they are restricting how much news coverage of the tragedy their children watch. Women, by 54% to 37%, say that Friday’s shootings at the elementary school reflect broader problems in American society. Men express the opposite view: 51% say that shootings like this are just the isolated acts of troubled individuals. College graduates (54%) are more likely than those with no more than a high school education (42%) to say that the massacre reflects broader societal problems.The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted December 13-16, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,006 adults age 18 or older, including 405 cell phone interviews.
Poll Shows Public Skeptical of Trimming Home-Mortgage Deductions Wednesday, December 12, 2012As Congress and President Obama prepare to cut government spending and increase revenue sufficient to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, Americans are divided on specific revenue-raisers currently under consideration, according to results of the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll. The survey shows that, on balance, Americans are open to reducing key tax deductions and credits for those earning more than $250,000 a year, but there is only limited support to reducing those credits for all taxpayers. The new poll focused on the various debt-reduction proposals being considered by the lame-duck Congress as it attempts to avoid the fiscal cliff—a combination of automatic spending cuts and expiring tax breaks set to be triggered at the start of the new year. Respondents were asked about four common deductions and credits, and whether, as part of a plan to reduce the deficit, they should be reduced for all taxpayers, only for those taxpayers making more than $250,000 per year, or for no taxpayers. Though short of a majority, 41 percent of respondents said they think the interest deduction on home mortgages should be reduced for all taxpayers. That compares with 21 percent who think the mortgage-interest deduction should be reduced only for higher-income taxpayers, and 31 percent who oppose reducing it for any taxpayers. The results for the other three credits mentioned were similar: 41 percent think the tax exemption for employer-provided health insurance should be reduced for all, while 19 percent favor reducing it only for the wealthy, and 30 percent do not favor reducing it for anyone. Additionally, 42 percent think the deduction for state and local taxes should be reduced for all taxpayers, 19 percent would reduce it for those making more than $250,000 a year, and 31 percent think it should not be reduced for any taxpayers. A slightly higher percentage of Americans—37 percent—oppose reducing the deduction for charitable donations for any taxpayers. Still, 38 percent support reducing it for all taxpayers, and 19 percent think it should be reduced only for the wealthy. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted December 6-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,001 adults age 18 or older, including 401 cell phone interviews.
Poll Shows Americans Fear Entitlement Cuts the Most in 'Cliff' Talks Tuesday, December 11, 2012As President Obama and congressional leaders race to avert the fiscal cliff, Americans remain concerned that whatever budget deal they strike will cut too much from Medicare and Social Security, according to a new poll. More of the Americans surveyed (35 percent) are worried about such cutbacks than seeing their tax bill rise (27 percent), the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll has found. Lagging behind in the public prioritization is the fear that a budget accord would fall short of deficit-reduction targets (15 percent) or that it will allow the federal government to spend too much in coming years (13 percent).
The plurality have already fingered a favorite scapegoat if Congress and the White House fail to reach an agreement: everyone. Exactly half of those surveyed said that they would blame President Obama, congressional Democrats, and congressional Republicans equally for the failure. While 27 percent of respondents would blame the GOP solely, only 16 percent said they’d blame Obama, and 5 percent said congressional Democrats. Combined, the results should be welcome news for Democrats itching to take a hard line in the fiscal-cliff negotiations: They show the public is nervous, as they are, about entitlement cuts, and that Democratic lawmakers likely won’t be blamed if the talks go south. Still, there is reason for caution among Democrats contemplating what’s become known in Washington as “cliff diving.” The gap between those worried about entitlements and taxes has actually narrowed since the National Journal survey in October. Then, there was a 12-percentage-point gap in favor of entitlements; now, it stands at 8 points. The public has steadfastly opposed the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration that would take effect if no deal is reached. In the survey, 63 percent called them a “bad idea.” Only 22 percent thought they should go into effect. Support for the cuts never topped 27 percent across all ages, income brackets, and levels of education. If lawmakers fail to reach a deal, independents, unsurprisingly, are more likely than either Democrats or Republicans to chide both political parties. A full 61 percent of independents said they’d blame both parties equally, compared with only 37 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted December 6-9, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,001 adults age 18 or older, including 401 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Pessimism About Fiscal Cliff Deal, Republicans Still Get More Blame Tuesday, December 04, 2012With Washington making little apparent progress in efforts to avoid going over the “fiscal cliff,” public opinion about the situation has changed little over the past three weeks. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post finds continued pessimism over prospects for a deficit agreement. Four-in-ten (40%) expect that the president and congressional Republicans will reach a deal by Jan. 1 to prevent automatic tax increases and spending cuts from taking effect; 49% say they will not. If no deal is reached, far more say congressional Republicans would be more to blame (53%) than President Obama (27%). These opinions are virtually unchanged since early November. Democrats continue to be much more optimistic about prospects for a fiscal cliff compromise than either Republicans or independents. A majority of Democrats (55%) expect Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement before Jan. 1 to prevent the automatic tax increases and spending cuts. Just 37% of independents and 22% of Republicans say an agreement will be reached. Most Americans feel like they have only a dim understanding of what might happen if the automatic spending cuts and tax increase go into effect. Just 28% say they understand the consequences very well, while 29% understand them fairly well. These impressions also have changed little over the past three weeks. Nonetheless, the public continues to see dire consequences – both for the nation’s economy and themselves – if the government goes over the fiscal cliff. While more say the nation’s economy (64%) than their own finances (43%) would be greatly affected, roughly six-in-ten say the impact would be negative for both the economy generally (60%) and their own personal finances (61%). The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 402 cell phone interviews.
Poll Shows Public Wants Entitlements Left Untouched Tuesday, December 04, 2012As Democrats and Republicans in Washington remain at odds over how to reshape the nation’s finances and prevent it from falling over the fiscal cliff, the public is supportive of cutting spending and at the same time more protective than ever of entitlement programs such as Medicare.
Traditional cleavages of class and race, age and income, and even region are apparent in the latest edition of the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, but they are far more muted than on issues such as President Obama’s reelection or the fate of his signature health care law. When it comes to the tax and spending issues that are at the heart of negotiations in Washington, primarily between the president and House Speaker John Boehner, the public is eager to defend the entitlement programs that both leaders have acknowledged need to be reined in if the nation’s $16 billion debt is to stop growing, let alone shrink. Consider Medicare, with its swelling costs. The health care program for the elderly is at the center of discussions, and prominent panels that have studied the deficit and issued recommendations have often targeted it. But a full 79 percent of those surveyed want the fiscal-cliff negotiators not to cut the program at all. Only 17 percent would be willing to see it cut some, and a minuscule 3 percent would be OK with it being cut a lot. At the end of an election year in which the public was riven, the unanimity with which the public rallies around this 47-year-old program is striking. As for gender, 71 percent of men want no cuts to Medicare, and 87 percent of women agree. There was a similar racial divide, with 93 percent of non-Hispanic blacks wanting the program exempt from cuts versus 78 percent of whites. Interestingly, men over age 50 were more open to cuts: Only 68 percent of them said the program shouldn’t be cut at all. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 402 cell phone interviews.
Poll Shows Ambivalence on Fiscal Cliff, Support for Rice Monday, December 03, 2012As the White House and congressional Republicans try to keep the nation from going over the so-called fiscal cliff, a new survey finds that the public is amenable to raising taxes on wealthier Americans and as averse as ever to cutting entitlement programs. The results are found in the latest edition of the United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, which tracks public opinion about important issues facing Congress. On the contentious question of whether the Senate should approve the nomination of U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice if President Obama picks her to be secretary of State, a slim majority of respondents—51 percent—favored her approval, while 35 percent said that her nomination should be rejected if it’s put before the Senate. The question noted that “some Republicans oppose her nomination because they say she provided misleading information about the role of terrorists in the recent attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi, Libya,” while also noting that Democrats insist that “Rice was only relying on information about the attack provided to her at the time and that the president is entitled to place his own choice in the position.” Concerning the fiscal cliff, the poll, which dives deeply into policy issues, asked voters what they thought the best way was to raise revenue from higher-income earners. A plurality, 39 percent, said that both their tax rates should be raised and their tax deductions should be scaled back. In addition to raising tax rates on income above $250,000—something the president advocates and something that will happen if Congress doesn’t act to prevent it—Congress is considering an overall cap on deductions. On the larger issue of how best to lower the federal deficit, 38 percent of respondents said that half the money should come from tax increases and half should come from spending cuts. An equal number said that two-thirds of the money should come from spending cuts and one-third from taxes. Only 16 percent said that two-thirds of the money should come from tax increases and one-third from spending cuts. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 30 - December 2, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,003 adults age 18 or older, including 402 cell phone interviews.
The Best (and Worst) of Mobile Connectivity Friday, November 30, 2012Some 85% of American adults own a cell phone, and these mobile devices
now play a central role in many aspects of their owners’ lives according
to a new survey. For many cell owners, their phone is an essential
utility that they check frequently, keep close at all times, and would
have trouble functioning without.
Parents, Teens, and Online Privacy Tuesday, November 20, 2012Most parents of teenagers are concerned about what their teenage
children do online and how their behavior could be monitored by others.
Some parents are taking steps to observe, discuss, and check up on their
children’s digital footprints, according to a survey by the Pew
Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project. These findings are based on a nationally representative phone survey of
802 parents and their 802 teens ages 12-17. It was conducted between
July 26 and September 30, 2012. Interviews were conducted in English and
Spanish and on landline and cell phones.These findings are based on a nationally representative phone survey of
802 parents and their 802 teens ages 12-17. It was conducted between
July 26 and September 30, 2012. Interviews were conducted in English and
Spanish and on landline and cell phones.
Pew Poll: More Following 'Fiscal Cliff' Debate than Petraeus Investigation Tuesday, November 20, 2012In a busy news week, more Americans say they followed the debate over the “fiscal cliff” very closely than the investigations into the Libya embassy attack, renewed violence in the Middle East or the FBI investigation that led to David Petraeus’s resignation as CIA Director after it found he was having an extra-marital affair. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Nov. 15-18 among 1,002 adults, finds that nearly identical percentages of Republicans (36%) and Democrats (35%) say they very closely followed the debate over the automatic spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect at the beginning of next year unless the president and Congress act. Republicans are about as interested as Democrats in the Petraeus investigation (28% vs. 21%). But there is a wide partisan gap in interest in another major story of the week; Republicans (42%) are much more likely than Democrats (21%) or independents (22%) to say they very closely followed the investigation into the September attack on the U.S. embassy in Benghazi, Libya very closely. While interest in the investigation that uncovered Petraeus’s affair is modest, 30% of Americans say the news is of great importance to the nation, while 32% say it is of some importance; 32% say it is of very little or no importance. Republicans are significantly more likely than Democrats to say the Petraeus situation is of great importance (43% vs. 27%). Notably, more people say the Petraeus situation is of either great or some importance (62%) than said that about Bill Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky in February 1998 (52%), shortly after news of Clinton’s affair broke. There was a much wider partisan gap in perceptions of the importance of the Clinton-Lewinsky affair: Among Republicans, 42% said the scandal was of great importance to the nation, compared with 9% of Democrats. Fully 65% of Democrats said it was of little or no importance to the nation. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 15-18, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,002 adults age 18 or older, including 401 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Low Marks for the 2012 Election Thursday, November 15, 2012The 2012 presidential campaign was a frustrating experience for many voters, who say the campaign was more negative than usual and had less discussion of issues than in most previous campaigns. Both Obama and Romney get mixed grades for the job they did reaching out to voters, as do campaign consultants, the press and pollsters. On most measures, voters’ views of campaign 2012 fall short of the election four years ago. Similarly, voters do not have a particularly rosy outlook on national politics going forward. Fully 66% say that relations between Republicans and Democrats will either stay about the same (52%) or get worse (14%) over the next year. And while 56% of voters think Obama will be successful in his coming term, that is down from the 67% who thought his first term would be successful at this point four years ago. While broad majorities of all voters want Barack Obama (72%) and the Republican leadership (67%) to work with the other side to get things done over the coming year, each party’s political base sends mixed signals. Only about half (46%) of Republicans want GOP leaders to work with Obama to get things done, while about as many (50%) say they should stand up to Obama, even if less gets done. The message to Obama from Democrats is only somewhat more conciliatory: 54% want the president to try to work with Republicans, but 42% do not. Republicans and Republican leaners remain of the view that the GOP leaders should move in a more conservative direction, not a more moderate one, by a 57% to 35% margin. Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, continue to support more moderation from their political leaders: Nearly six-in-ten (57%) want Democratic leaders to move in a moderate direction, while 33% want them to move in a more liberal direction. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 8-11, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,258 adults age 18 or older, including 467 cell phone interviews.
GOP Ponders Immigration Reform, and So Does Public Wednesday, November 14, 2012Last week’s elections have left Americans more optimistic about the prospects of President Obama and Congress reaching agreement on the most important issues facing the federal government, according to a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll conducted ahead of the crucial lame-duck session beginning this week. That optimism is driven mainly by self-identified Democrats, and respondents express more confidence in Obama and his party than in congressional Republicans, the poll shows. Overall, more Americans say it is “very important” for Congress to “address the job situation” than the other four issues tested in the poll. The next priority was to “improve public education,” followed closely by “reduce the federal budget deficit” and “address the country’s energy needs.” Lagging behind was “address immigration policy,” although Americans remain supportive of allowing at least some illegal immigrants to remain in the country if they have broken no other laws. Fully 86 percent of respondents say that it is “very important” for Congress to act on jobs, up from 79 percent in mid-April. Another 10 percent rate it “somewhat important,” while just 2 percent say that it is “not too important” or “not at all important.” Three in four say that it is very important for Congress to act on the federal deficit, about equal with public education but ahead of energy and immigration. On the deficit, energy, and immigration, more Americans now say these are very important than in April; the earlier survey did not ask about education. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 8-11, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 400 cell phone interviews.
Poll Shows Health Care Issues Net Positive for President Obama, But Economy, Candidate Characteristics Bigger Factors in Vote Wednesday, November 14, 2012As predicted, there was a role for health care issues in voters’ 2012 election decision, but Kaiser’s November Health Tracking Poll—fielded in the days immediately following last week’s presidential election—suggests it was a trailing issue rather than a leading one. To keep the issue list in perspective, the November survey first asked voters to name the top two factors in their vote in an open‐ended question, without providing answer choices. Here we confirm the importance of the candidates’ personal characteristics in voters’ decisions: for both those supporting President Barack Obama and those backing Governor Mitt Romney, it was the voters’ sense of the characteristics and records of the candidates themselves rather than any one issue that was at the top of their minds. Taken together, health care issues came in third (or tied for third) among both groups, volunteered by 16 percent of Obama voters and 13 percent of Romney voters as one of the two most important factors in their vote. More specifically, eight percent of all voters mentioned something about the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as important to their vote, either pro or con, while one percent volunteered something about the Medicare program and the same share volunteered Medicaid. Interestingly, while the economy and jobs were just as important as the candidates’ own strengths for Romney voters, it was named by significantly fewer Obama voters. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 7-10, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,223 adults age 18 or older, including 515 cell phone interviews.
Pew Poll: Broad Concern about 'Fiscal Cliff' Consequences Tuesday, November 13, 2012As the president and congressional leaders begin negotiations to avoid the “fiscal cliff” deadline at the end of the year, there is widespread public concern about the possible financial consequences. More say the automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled to take effect in January would have a major effect on the U.S. economy than on their own finances. But nearly identical majorities say the effect of the changes would be mostly negative for the economy (62%) and their personal financial situation (60%). The public is skeptical that President Obama and congressional Republicans will reach an agreement by the end of the year to avoid the fiscal cliff. About half (51%) say the two sides will not reach an agreement, while just 38% say they will. If no deal is reached, more say that congressional Republicans would be more to blame than President Obama (53% vs. 29%). The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and The Washington Post finds sharp partisan divisions over prospects for a deal to avoid the fiscal measures from automatically taking effect. Republicans are particularly skeptical: By a 66%-25% margin more think an agreement will not be reached. By comparison, Democrats are about as likely to expect a deal to be made (47%), as not (40%). Among independents, 51% do not think President Obama and Republicans and in Congress will come to an agreement, while 37% think this will happen. If an agreement is not reached, 85% of Democrats and 53% of independents say that Republicans in Congress would be more to blame. About two-thirds of Republicans (68%) say that if an agreement is not reached, President Obama would be more to blame. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 8-11, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 400 cell phone interviews.
Americans Want Congress to Act on Jobs Monday, November 12, 2012Last week’s elections have left Americans more optimistic about the prospects of President Obama and Congress reaching agreement on the most important issues facing the federal government, according to a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll conducted ahead of the crucial lame-duck session beginning this week. That optimism is driven mainly by self-identified Democrats, and respondents express more confidence in Obama and his party than in congressional Republicans, the poll shows. Overall, more Americans say it is “very important” for Congress to “address the job situation” than the other four issues tested in the poll. The next priority was to “improve public education,” followed closely by “reduce the federal budget deficit” and “address the country’s energy needs.” Lagging behind was “address immigration policy,” although Americans remain supportive of allowing at least some illegal immigrants to remain in the country if they have broken no other laws. Fully 86 percent of respondents say that it is “very important” for Congress to act on jobs, up from 79 percent in mid-April. Another 10 percent rate it “somewhat important,” while just 2 percent say that it is “not too important” or “not at all important.” Three in four say that it is very important for Congress to act on the federal deficit, about equal with public education but ahead of energy and immigration. On the deficit, energy, and immigration, more Americans now say these are very important than in April; the earlier survey did not ask about education. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted November 8-11, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,000 adults age 18 or older, including 400 cell phone interviews.
Brown, Warren Are Neck and Neck in Tight Senate Race Sunday, November 04, 2012With less than 48 hours until Election Day, the race for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts between Republican incumbent Scott Brown and Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren is extremely close, according to a new UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll released today. The independent, nonpartisan poll found that Brown has a 1 percent lead over Warren among likely voters, with 49 percent for Brown and 48 percent for Warren (with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points). Warren has a 2 percent advantage over Brown among registered voters, with 49 percent for Warren and 47 percent for Brown (with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points). “Elizabeth Warren now leads among registered voters, but Brown holds a one-point edge among likely voters. What these campaigns do on the ground to get out the vote is likely to determine the winner,” said Joshua Dyck, associate professor of political science and co-director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion. Dyck said that the UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll uses a sophisticated seven-item turnout scale to determine likely voters by assessing whether or not a registered voter has voted in the past, if they know where to vote, and if they indicate that they will definitely vote. In the last UMass Lowell-Boston Herald poll on the Senate race, which was released Sept. 19, Brown had 49 percent support among likely voters and 45 percent were for Warren. Among registered voters, Brown had 50 percent and Warren had 44 percent. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 31 to November 3, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 956 adults age 18 or older, including 800 likely voters.
Pew Poll: Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days - Obama 50% - Romney 47% Sunday, November 04, 2012Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters. The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions. A week ago the race was deadlocked, with each candidate drawing support from 47% of the likely electorate. Interviewing for the final pre-election survey was conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. The previous survey was conducted Oct. 24-28, before Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the East Coast. Obama’s handling of the storm’s aftermath may have contributed to his improved showing. Fully 69% of all likely voters approve of the way Obama is handling the storm’s impact. Even a plurality of Romney supporters (46%) approve of Obama’s handling of the situation; more important, so too do 63% of swing voters. Voter turnout, which may be lower than in 2008 and 2004, remains one of Romney’s strengths. Romney’s supporters continue to be more engaged in the election and interested in election news than Obama supporters, and are more committed to voting. The survey also indicates that voters in the nine battleground states are as closely divided as the national electorate: 49% of likely voters in battleground states support Obama while 47% back Romney. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 24-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International.
Anger Aside, Voters Favor D.C. Status Quo Wednesday, October 31, 2012Despite dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction and Washington’s performance, voters lean toward retaining the status quo in Washington, the latest United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll has found. This final Congressional Connection Poll before the Nov. 6 election found that among likely voters, President Obama has reopened a slim advantage over Mitt Romney, while a narrow plurality prefers that Republicans maintain House control. By a wider margin, likely voters said they prefer that Democrats retain their Senate majority. These national measures of sentiment don’t necessarily predict the results in the state-by-state and district-by-district contests that will decide House and Senate control. Yet they illuminate the competing, even contradictory, impulses among voters that are shaping the relationship between the presidential and congressional contests. The paradoxical bottom line is that even as most voters say they want to divide control of the White House and Congress to check the next president, they are displaying an increasing tendency toward party-line voting in congressional races that could make that outcome less likely. Overall, the survey found Obama leading Romney among likely voters by 50 percent to 45 percent, after the two tied at 47 percent each in a late-September Congressional Connection Poll. Conversely, the poll recorded a slight shift toward the GOP in House races. Now, 47 percent of likely voters say they would prefer that Republicans maintain their House majority, while 44 percent want Democrats to take over; Democrats held a 45 percent to 43 percent advantage in late September. Voters, by a solid 50 percent to 40 percent margin, now say they would prefer a Democratic Senate; that’s up from a 47 percent to 42 percent advantage for Democrats in September. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted Oct. 25-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,010 adults—including 713 likely voters by cell phone and landline—on . It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points for the entire sample, and 4.4 percentage points for likely voters.
Pew Poll: Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge Monday, October 29, 2012As the presidential campaign enters its final week, Barack Obama has failed to regain much of the support he lost in the days following the first presidential debate and the race is now even among likely voters: 47% favor Obama while an identical percentage supports Mitt Romney. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds Obama holding a statistically insignificant two-point edge among registered voters: 47% to 45%. This is little different from the 46% to 46% standoff among registered voters observed in early October, in the days following the first debate. When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, the balance of opinion shifts slightly in Romney’s direction, as it did in early October. This reflects Romney’s turnout advantage over Obama, which could loom larger as Election Day approaches. In both October surveys, more Republicans and Republican leaners than Democrats and Democratic leaners are predicted to be likely voters. In September, the gap was more modest. 2012 Election Voter Preference Trends
Track voter preferences for Obama vs. Romney overall and by demographic group among registered voters. Indeed, surveys over the past month have found Republicans becoming much more upbeat about the race and about Mitt Romney himself. More Republicans now see the campaign as interesting and informative. And compared with September, a greater proportion of Romney voters now say they are voting for him rather than against Obama. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 24-28, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,678 adults age 18 or older, including 1,495 likely voters.
Pew Poll: Republicans Increasingly Positive About Campaign Thursday, October 25, 2012Republicans express increasingly positive opinions about the presidential campaign and are now about as likely as Democrats to view the campaign as interesting and informative. In early September, shortly after the party conventions, far more Democrats than Republicans said the campaign was interesting and informative. The new survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that 63% of the public says the campaign is interesting, while 28% say it is dull. Last month, 53% found the campaign interesting. From January through June, majorities said the campaign was dull, and no more than about four-in-ten found it interesting. Over the past month, the increase in the percentage saying the campaign is interesting has come entirely among Republicans and independents. In the new survey, conducted before Monday’s debate, 73% of Republicans say the campaign is interesting, up 23 points since early September and by far the highest percentage of the year. More independents also view the campaign as interesting (56% today, 45% in September). The percentage of Democrats who say the campaign is interesting, which jumped 19 points between June and September, is unchanged since then (66%). Compared with a month ago, far more Republicans also view the campaign informative (69% now, 49% then,). And substantially fewer say the campaign is “too long” than did so in September (42% now, 62% then). In fact, the percentage of Republicans who say the campaign is too long is now about as low as it was in January (49%) at the start of the GOP primaries. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 18-21, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,005 adults age 18 or older, including 404 cell phone interviews.
Presidential Campaign Donations in the Digital Age Thursday, October 25, 2012In June 2012, the Federal Election Commission for the first time
allowed political campaigns to accept campaign contributions via text
message, and both of the major presidential candidates now allow
supporters to contribute directly to their campaign using a cell phone.
In two surveys fielded in late September, the Pew Internet Project asked a series of questions
aimed at determining how this new contribution model is fitting into
Americans’ political giving habits. These findings are based on a combined analysis of two nationally representative telephone surveysThese findings are based on a combined analysis of two nationally representative telephone surveys.
Younger Americans’ Reading and Library Habits Tuesday, October 23, 2012The Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project has taken
a special look at readers between the ages of 16 and 29 because
interest in them is especially high in the library world and the
publishing world. This report examines how they encounter and consume
books in different formats. It flows out of a larger effort to assess
the reading habits of all Americans ages 16 and older as e-books change
the reading landscape and the borrowing services of libraries. The main findings in this report, including all statistics and
quantitative data, are from a nationally-representative phone survey of
2,986 people ages 16 and older that was administered from November
16-December 21, 2011. This report also contains the voices and insights
of an online panel of library patrons ages 16-29 who borrow e-books,
fielded in the spring of 2012.The main findings in this report, including all statistics and
quantitative data, are from a nationally-representative phone survey of
2,986 people ages 16 and older that was administered from November
16-December 21, 2011. This report also contains the voices and insights
of an online panel of library patrons ages 16-29 who borrow e-books,
fielded in the spring of 2012.
Reason-Rupe Poll: California's Voters Appear Ready to Cut Spending and Reform Public Pensions Friday, October 19, 2012California's Proposition 30 and Proposition 32 are too close to call, according to a new Reason-Rupe statewide poll of likely voters that finds 7 percent have already cast their ballots. Reason-Rupe finds 50 percent of likely voters intend to vote “yes” and 46 percent say they’ll vote “no” on Proposition 30, Gov. Jerry Brown’s initiative to raise sales and income taxes. As Prop. 30’s support slips, there are emerging signs that even California’s Democratic-leaning electorate has grown weary of the state’s tax increases and may be ready for some Wisconsin-like reforms. Adjusted for inflation, California’s government spending increased 42 percent per capita from 2000 to 2010, but the Reason-Rupe poll finds that just 14 percent of likely voters believe California’s government spending over that decade improved the quality of life in the state. In fact, 52 percent say the increase in state spending actually decreased the quality of life and 28 percent feel it made no impact. As a result, 56 percent of Californians favor reducing state government spending to what was spent per capita in 2000 and 25 percent oppose going back to 2000 spending levels. The poll’s sample was made up of 44 percent Democrats, 26 percent Republicans and 24 percent independents. And yet, 62 percent support reducing the number of state government employees, while just 33 percent oppose cutting the state workforce. Fifty-nine percent of those surveyed say government regulations often do more harm than good. And an even higher number, 65 percent of likely voters, believe the laws and regulations passed by the state legislature make it more likely that businesses will move their jobs to other states. Merely 24 percent think the legislature’s actions help create jobs in California. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 11-15, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 696 adults in California age 18 or older, including 508 likely voters and 229 cell phone interviews.
Social Media and Political Engagement Friday, October 19, 2012The use of social media is becoming a feature of political and civic
engagement for many Americans. Some 60% of American adults use either
social networking sites like Facebook or Twitter, and a new survey by
the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project finds
that 66% of those social media users—or 39% of all American adults—have
done at least one of eight civic or political activities with social
media. These findings come from a nationally representative survey of 2,253
adults ages 18 and older that was conducted between July 16 and August
7, 2012. The survey included 900 interviews on cell phones and was
conducted in English and Spanish.These findings come from a nationally representative survey of 2,253
adults ages 18 and older that was conducted between July 16 and August
7, 2012. The survey included 900 interviews on cell phones and was
conducted in English and Spanish.
Pew Poll: On Eve of Foreign Debate, Growing Pessimism about Arab Spring Aftermath Thursday, October 18, 2012As next week’s third and final presidential debate on foreign policy approaches, a national survey by the Pew Research Center finds increasing public pessimism about developments in the Middle East and more support for tough policies to deal with Iran’s nuclear program and economic issues with China. However, there is no change in the consensus in support for ending U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan. Doubts have spread about the political direction of countries swept up in the Arab Spring protests that began almost two years ago. Nearly six-in-ten Americans (57%) do not believe the changes in the Middle East will lead to lasting improvements for people living in the affected countries, up sharply from 43% in April 2011. And a majority of Americans (54%) continue to say it is more important to have stable governments in the Middle East, even if there is less democracy in the region. Just 30% say democratic governments are more important, even if there is less stability. The public has long favored tough measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and 56% now say it is more important to take a firm stand against Iran’s nuclear program, while 35% say it is more important to avoid a military conflict. In January, 50% favored taking a firm stand against Iran and 41% said it was more important to avoid a confrontation. When it comes to China, 49% of Americans want the U.S. to get tougher with China on economic issues, compared with 42% who say it is more important to build a stronger relationship. In March 2011, the balance of opinion was the reverse: 53% said building a stronger relationship was more important while 40% advocated tougher policies. The results are based on data collected from telephone interviews conducted October 4-7, 2012 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International among a national sample of 1,511 adults age 18 or older, including 1,201 registered voters and 605 cell phone interviews.
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